As Helen Zille’s Democratic Alliance (DA) intensifies its campaign for an outright majority in Johannesburg, newly published polling data exposes a fractured black electorate that could undermine her ambitions. An SRF poll conducted in July and released on 9 September 2026 places the DA at 42% against the ANC’s 18% citywide, according to Daily Maverick, but among black voters the picture is dramatically different. The ANC leads with 36%, followed by the uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) Party at 24%, the DA at just 13%, and the EFF at 12%, The Common Sense report shows. An Ipsos survey published on 4 September offered a tighter contest, with the ANC at 31% and the DA at 27%.

Zille has set a benchmark of 490,000 votes to capture the metro outright, matching the party’s 2016 peak, but she acknowledges a key internal threat. “The biggest obstacle to us getting a majority in Joburg is DA supporters who don’t go and vote,” Zille said during a Daily Maverick The Gathering discussion on 11 September. She warned that wealthier supporters insulated by private alternatives to failing municipal services risk staying home.

Soweto Distrust Clouds DA Campaign

Elections analyst Wayne Sussman noted that Soweto, with roughly 30% of Johannesburg’s wards, is decisive. “If my memory serves me correctly, about almost 30% of the wards in the elections are in Soweto,” he said. Zille launched her mayoral campaign at the Eyethu Centre in Soweto in September 2025, but deep-seated scepticism persists.

Soweto residents interviewed by Daily Maverick voiced doubts rooted in race. “I am still finding it hard to trust the DA because they are a white party,” said Simon Malope (55) of Senoane. Jabulani resident Sbu Mkhwanazi (39) asked, “Will the DA not take us back to apartheid?” Maphindy Nsele (33) of Nancefield said she did not trust the party, calling it “a white party that has lived up to racist expectations.”

ActionSA leader Herman Mashaba dismissed Zille’s majority hopes outright. “If she thinks she will win Joburg without the support of Soweto, she must be living in another world,” he stated. Zille’s own campaign lead in Soweto, Nomzekelo Mohamed, countered that the DA had grown significantly since the early 2000s, when wearing a DA T-shirt drew insults, but the polling numbers suggest the party’s black voter support remains in the low teens.

MK Party Emerges As Key Black-Vote Player

With the ANC’s Johannesburg support sliding, the MK Party has captured 24% of black voters, establishing itself as the second-largest preference within that demographic. This consolidation directly threatens the DA’s path, because Zille needs to cut deeply into the black vote while simultaneously energising her suburban base in a low-turnout climate. Only 2.349 million of an estimated 3.2–3.4 million eligible voters have registered, and Ipsos director Mari Harris noted that six in ten Gauteng residents believe the country is heading in the wrong direction.

Zille has drawn red lines against working with the EFF and MK, limiting her coalition options should she fall short of 490,000 votes. Ipsos’s Harris summarised the challenge: “Helen Zille has her work cut out for her, mainly to convince people the DA can do a better job, getting both the black and white middle-class to vote en masse.” The DA’s 2016 benchmark remains its high-water mark, and with the MK Party siphoning off traditional ANC supporters, the 4 November election could deliver a hung council in which black voter allegiance proves decisive.