Ukuvota kwakamuva kudale izingxoxo mayelana nesimo sezepolitiki esingase sibe khona ngemuva kokhetho lwangomhla zingama-29 kuNhlaba, kuqagelwa ukusebenza okuncomekayo kweqembu likaJacob Zuma uMkhonto Wesizwe (MK). Leli tulo libhebhethekiswa ukuthi kungenzeka ukuthi i-MK ifune ingxenye enkulu yevoti, okungenzeka idlule i-Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) kaJulius Malema futhi ithole ukumelwa okwesithathu ngobukhulu ePhalamende.
Isimo Sezombangazwe Esingalindelekile
Idatha yokuvota evela emavikini ambalwa edlule ibeka i- Iphathi ye-MK njengombangi owesabekayo okhethweni lukazwelonke oluzayo, okungenzeka abe yiqembu lesithathu ngobukhulu. Okunye ukuqagela kuze kwaphakamisa ukuthi i-MK ingahola KwaZulu-Natal ngamavoti angama-25% kuphela. Kodwa-ke, ukwethembeka kwala mavoti kudinga ukuhlolisiswa, uma kubhekwa ubuncane bemboni yokuvota eNingizimu Afrika kanye nokuchema okungenzeka okuvela ezinhlanganweni zokushicilela.
Amaqembu amakhulu, i-ANC ne-DA, aqhuba ukuvota okubanzi kodwa ngokuvamile agcina lokhu okutholakele kuyimfihlo ngaphandle uma kunenzuzo ngokwesu. UMichael Beaumont we-ActionSA ugxeke a I-Brenthurst Foundation I-poll yesibikezelo sayo esibonakala singenakwenzeka sokukhuphuka kwe-MKP kuya ku-13%, okuphakamisa ukuthi isebenza kakhulu njengethuluzi elilandisayo lokukhula kwe-DA kanye nesikhalo sokuphikisa umfelandawonye wamanxele.
Noma kunjalo, imizamo ebonakalayo ye-MK yokukhankasa, njengokwanda kwezingqwembe zikaZuma e-Randburg, ikhombisa umsebenzi ohlelekile noxhaswe ngezimali. Ukuqhubeka nokukhalaza kukaZuma, okukhonjiswa yimibuthano emikhulu kanye nokuvuswa okubuhlungu kwesikhundla sakhe njengomongameli ngezithombe zomkhankaso, kugcizelela ithonya lakhe elingapheli naphezu kwezingxabano ezithinta isikhathi sakhe.
I-Zuma Factor kanye ne-Public Sentiment
Ukubusa kuka-Jacob Zuma kwezombusazwe kanye noxhaxha lwamaxhama oxhaso olwasungulwa ngesikhathi esengumongameli kunesandla esikhulu ekusekelweni kwakhe njengamanje. Ubuzwe bakhe bubuye bubambe iqhaza elibalulekile, ikakhulukazi KwaZulu-Natal, lapho kubhekwa khona ukwehla kwengcebo yesikhathi sangempela kubantu baseNingizimu Afrika selokhu asuka esikhundleni.
Ukulangazelela komphakathi umsindisi kulezi zikhathi ezinzima sekuholele ekutheni uphinde weseke uZuma nakuba ehlangene nesaga sokuthunjwa kombuso. UZwelinzima Vavi, uNobhala Jikelele weSaftu, uzwakalise ukuzisola ngokweseka kwakhe uZuma phambilini, evuma isimo esinzima esidala ukuthi abantu babheke kubantu abafana noZuma.
Amandla ePhalamende anamandla
Uma kwenzeka i-MK iqinisekisa ukuba khona ephalamende, ingalungisa kabusha amathuba obumbano, ikakhulukazi yenze buthaka amandla e-EFF njengozakwethu womfelandawonye. Ukungenzeki komfelandawonye we-ANC-MK, uma kubhekwa ubuholi bukaZuma be-MK, kwenza kube nzima ukuhlangana okungase kube khona, kushiye i-DA njengedlelana ne-ANC okungalindelekile kuyo lapho amadlelandawonye ehluleka khona.
Ukungacaci kahle mayelana nohlu lwabazongenela ukhetho lwe-MK kanye namava ezomthetho kuphakamisa imibuzo mayelana nenqubomgomo yayo kanye nokusebenza isikhathi eside, ikakhulukazi uma kubhekwa ukuhambisana kweqembu njengamanje nefa likaZuma.
Ngibheke Phambili
Ukhetho oluzayo lungase lwethule ungqimba olusha lwezingqinamba esimweni sezombangazwe zaseNingizimu Afrika, luphonse inselelo imifelandawonye esunguliwe futhi okungenzeka luholele ebudlelwaneni obungalindelekile. Impumelelo ye-MK ingakhombisa kanyekanye futhi yandise ukukhathazeka kwesizwe kwezombusazwe kanye nenhlalakahle yezomnotho, kugcizelele isimo esingalindelekile semizwa yabavoti kanye nokwethembeka kweqembu.
Ukunyuka okungenzeka kweqembu le-MK kufanekiselani ngekusasa lezepolitiki laseNingizimu Afrika?
Njengoba sicubungula ukulandisa kwezepolitiki okuthuthukayo, kuvela imibuzo mayelana nezinhlelo ezidlalwayo. Ingabe ukwanda kokwesekwa kwe-MK kuwukubonakaliswa kwangempela kwemizwa yomphakathi, noma iqhinga elisuselwe emaqenjini athile emkhakheni wezepolitiki? Imiphumela yokhetho elindelwe izoba namuphi umthelela emkhombandlela nezinqubomgomo zamaqembu amakhulu, futhi lokhu kungasho ukuthini kumuntu waseNingizimu Afrika wansuku zonke? Lokhu kucatshangelwa kusemqoka njengoba isizwe sisondela esigungwini esingaba noguquko okhethweni.
Isihloko sizama ukufezani?
Lo mbhalo ugxile kakhulu ekuthuthukeni kwezepolitiki eNingizimu Afrika, okugqanyiswe wukunyuka kweqembu likaMnuz Jacob Zuma uMkhonto Wesizwe (MK) kanye nemithelela yalo ekuguquguqukeni kwamandla endabuko, ikakhulukazi okuthinta i-African National Congress (ANC), i-Economic Freedom Fighters. (EFF), futhi okungenzeka kube nomthelela emibuthanweni emisha yezepolitiki. Yize lesi sihloko sidingida ngezimo ezehlukene ezingase zenzeke ngokubheka ukusebenza kokhetho kweqembu le-MK, okuhlanganisa nomthelela walo ku-ANC, EFF, nezinye izinhlaka zezepolitiki, limile ukuphusha ngokusobala uhlelo lwe-ANC-Democratic Alliance (DA). umfelandawonye.
Kodwa-ke, iyaqagela ngesu lokulungisa izinhlangano okungase kudingeke ukuthi lizicabangele ekuphenduleni amagagasi ezepolitiki aguquguqukayo. Ngokuqondile, ibalula ukuthi kungenzeka, nakuba kungajwayelekile, ukuthi i-ANC idinge ukusebenzisana ne-DA uma ukusebenza kweqembu le-MK kushintsha kakhulu isimo sezepolitiki esikhona. Lesi simo sicatshangelwa esimweni sokuthi i-ANC ingase ibe ngaphansi kweningi lama-50%, ngaleyo ndlela kudingeke ukuthi kube nozakwethu womfelandawonye ukuze kubunjwe uhulumeni. Lesi sihloko siphakamisa ukuthi ukukhuphuka kukaZuma kanye neqembu le-MK kungaba nomthelela ngokungaqondile esimweni lapho, ngenxa yesidingo esikhundleni sokuthanda, i-ANC kungase kudingeke icabange ukusebenzisana ne-DA.
Ukucutshungulwa kwesimo esifana nalesi akukhombisi i-ajenda yokukhuthaza umbimbi lwe-ANC ne-DA kodwa kugqamisa ubunkimbinkimbi kanye nesimo esingalindelekile somkhakha wezepolitiki waseNingizimu Afrika. Iphakamisa imibuzo efanele mayelana nekusasa lokusebenzisana kwezombusazwe ezweni, amathuba okuhlangana okusha noma okungalindelekile, kanye namasu amaqembu angawasebenzisa ukuze kuzuzwe lezi zinguquko. Noma kunjalo, izingxoxo zalolu hlobo, ezihambisana nezinkulumo ezifanayo, bezilokhu zikhula ngesivinini kusukela owayenguMongameli uZuma eqala ukukhankasela i-MK Party.
Lokhu kuhlaziya okuqagelayo kumema abafundi ukuthi bacabangele imithelela yesimo sezepolitiki esihlukene kanye namaqhinga amaqembu angahle awenze ukuze aphendule. Igcizelela ukubaluleka kokuqonda ukuguquguquka kwezinhlangano zezepolitiki kanye namandla okushintsha kwemifelandawonye lapho kubhekwana nokushintsha kwenhlanhla yokhetho.